Typhoon Risks Assessment And The Probabilistic Aprroach Of Predicting Typhoons In The Philippines

Philippines is located in the "Typhoon Alley" or "Typhoon Gateway" of the Pacific Northwest. Typhoon is one of the most frequent natural disasters and has more occurrence than earthquake. Because of its frequency, typhoon causes damages to the structures, property and livelihood and even causes trauma on the affected families, not only does it bring strong winds but also heavy rain which causes flashfloods and landslides that could lead to more destruction. Typhoons, hurricanes and tropical storm draw their energy from the warmth of the sea and because of Climate Change the sea temperature are warming too much, thus, it could make the occurrence of typhoons more frequent than before. In this study, data regarding tropical storms occurrence in the Philippines from year 1998 to 2016 are gathered from the main office of PAG-ASA in Quezon City. Those data are then used in the assessment of typhoon risk in the country in terms of frequency, location of landfall, and its maximum sustained winds. This study also used the gathered data to make a probabilistic approach in predicting these occurrences and when will the next Super Typhoon will occur. Based on the results, it was found out that an average of 18 typhoons enter the Philippine Area of responsibility each year, and 8 of these are typhoons. The study also shows that from July to October has the highest frequency of occurrence, and out of 18 regions in the country Region 2 (Cagayan Valley) has the most number of typhoon landfall. It was concluded that a certain frequency of occurrence will fall at a specified range of Maximum sustained winds follow a certain relationship: "if the value of frequency being tested is lower, then it will fall to a higher range of Maximum Sustained Winds and vice versa", and according to the probability density model the next super typhoon would likely to occur between March 13, 2029 and October 30, 2030.